Google’s TrafficEstimatorService has been a joke for a while now. In theory, it’s a great idea. Put in a keyword, get back the estimated impressions, clicks, and even an estimated average rank. The problem lies in the way Google ranks ads. Here’s an explanation right from the horse’s mouth:
Your keyword-targeted ad is ranked on search results and content pages based on its maximum cost-per-click (CPC) - or maximum cost-per-impression (CPM) for site-targeted ads - and Quality Score. Having relevant ad text, a high CPC (or for site-targeted ads, a high CPM), and a strong CTR will result in a higher position for your ad. Because this ranking system uses well-targeted, relevant ads to help determine your ad’s position, your ad can’t be locked out of the top position based solely on price.
Since your rank, and the number of times your ad is shown, is based on your ad text there’s a large area of doubt when Google tries to estimate the number of impressions you’re going to get with a completely new keyword. This and the lackluster display of accuracy so far, I’m assuming, is why they’ve changed it. Here’s the lowdown (or if you prefer to read the whole thread):
Gone:
- impressions - The estimated number of impressions for a given
keyword
- ctr - The estimated click-through-rate for a given keyword.
- notShownPerDay - The estimated number of times that the ad would not be shown, despite a keyword match
Added:
- clicksPerDay - The estimated number of clicks generated
per day for a keyword in a given ad group
I have to say, if this makes the system more accurate, I like this change. It keeps the main reason I use the estimation service intact, that is, to forecast the amount of money it’ll take to traffic a new keyword (or a few million). What it doesn’t do is try to estimate the relevancy of a keyword before it’s added to the campaign. That’s fine with me. I like to determine the relevance of a keyword by the amount of money it’s profiting, not by its CTR.
I’ll get back to you on whether the new system is actually more accurate …